Global digital ad spending will “only” increase at 8.4% in 2023, according to a GroupM report out today. This is its smallest increase since the 2009 financial crisis, but this year it is limited by success, not economic problems.
“Digital pureplay ad revenue will account for 68.8% of the total [ad revenue growth] in 2023 and will reach 74.4% of total ad revenue by 2028,” the report says. “A single-digit growth should be thought of more as a function of the size and maturity of ‘digital’ rather than a recessionary environment.”
Why we care. Digital, in all its various forms and formats, continues to rule the advertising roost. The world wants its information and entertainment on demand and marketers continue to innovate and personalize content to seamlessly be a part of that.
Retail media networks. Ad revenue from retail media channels will grow 9.9% to reach $125.7 billion in 2023 and is on track to surpass television revenue in 2028 when it will represent 15.4% of total ad revenue.
TV and CTV. Global traditional TV revenue is forecast to be $133.6 billion in 2023 (excluding U.S. political advertising), a 1.2% drop from last year. By comparison, connected TV revenue this year is estimated to come in at $25.9 billion, a 13.2% increase over 2022. It is projected to grow by 10.4% from 2023 to 2028 on a compound annual basis to $42.5 billion, the report found.
Digital out-of-home. Digital OOH is doing very well this year. It is forecast to rise 26.1% to $13.3 billion. That’s more than twice that of OOH overall, which is expected to grow a healthy-but-less-spectacular 12.7% to $35.6 billion in 2023.
Global, US and UK. Globally total ad spend (excluding U.S. political advertising) is expected to grow by 5.9% to $874.5 billion in 2023 and 6% next year. In the U.S. it will increase by 5.1% to $322.5 billion this year and 5% in 2024. Unfortunately, the International Monetary Fund is predicting 7% inflation for 2023, meaning these numbers represent a net loss.
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